By Alessandro Lenzetti, MBA ’24
This article was written in response to a seminar given by Diana Rowe, Global Marketing Director, Energy Storage, Albemarle Corporation, in an EDGE Seminar at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business in Fall 2023. This article voices one student’s perspective and does not necessarily represent the views of either Duke University or the seminar speaker.
In the fifth session of the highly engaging EDGE seminar, we had the pleasure of listening to Diana Rowe, the Global Marketing Director for Energy Storage at Albemarle Corporation, a company that calls itself the industry leader in “transforming essential resources into critical ingredients for mobility, energy, connectivity and health.”
One of the key topics Rowe touched on during her seminar was the growth of the electric vehicle (EV) industry and the corresponding need for lithium to create the batteries for the electric cars. According to Albemarle’s studies, EVs are expected to hugely penetrate the market in the upcoming years and reach 60% of market share within the entire car industry by 2030. Other studies suggest that EVs could reach even higher penetration rates: 86% of global vehicles sales by 2030, with China reaching over 90%.1 Even a roughly 40% market penetration rate by 2030 would translate into an estimated 40 million electric cars sold per year, with an additional 20 million hybrid vehicles.2
This growth will be driven by government policies and lower battery costs that will fuel the widespread
adoption of EVs, leading to battery-powered vehicles costing the same as internal combustion engine
vehicles in every major car market and segment by 2030, as well as increased, improved and widespread
charging infrastructures.
However, looking at photos of lithium mines, I have to say I have some doubts about the long-term environmental sustainability of using lithium for the production of EV batteries. Depending on the battery size, a typical EV battery requires about 8 kg of lithium, 14 kg of cobalt, and 20 kg of manganese. However, some cars contain much more lithium, like the Tesla Model S battery, which contains around 62.6 kg (138 pounds) of lithium.3
Considering the numbers above, if sales of electric cars in 2030 follow the forecasts (~50 million), 400 million kilograms of lithium will be required to produce batteries for all the vehicles.
Although batteries will become more efficient, requiring less lithium and providing longer travel ranges,
a couple of questions came to mind while thinking about these numbers:
- How long will the lithium mining industry be able to extract 400+ million kilograms of lithium per year?
- What are the impacts on the planet of this massive extraction of lithium?
Focusing on the first question, we should really ask ourselves whether our planet is able to provide us that amount of lithium in the upcoming 10, 20, 30 years and whether the available lands and the reserves of lithium will be able to satisfy the exponentially increasing demand.
Thinking about the impact on the planet, mining operations are very water-intensive processes that leave lands dried and increasing the likelihood of desertification in certain areas (i.e., the Atacama Desert in Chile).4
Furthermore, lithium mining processes are responsible for:
- Water and air pollution: brine extraction can lead to pollution of air and water in the areas surrounding the operations
- Land degradation: usage of huge amount of lands and deforestation might occur to sustain the business and need for lands
- Community displacements: indigenous and other small populations might be forced to leave the area where they lived for a long-time5 6
Finally, the car industry and lithium mining industry and the entire connected supply chain should consider government regulations that might come into play. Indeed, other industries that exploit lands to extract minerals and other materials have been subject to limitation by laws. The Italian marble industry, for instance, has recently faced restrictions on further extraction of marble from new locations, with thousands of hectares subject to restrictions, making it impossible to open new quarries.7 What would happen to the lithium industry and the EV industry if something similar happens?
It will be pivotal to appropriately consider the environmental impacts of the entire lithium supply chain as the industry grows.
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- Eric Walz. (2023) “EVs could reach 86% of global vehicle sales by 2030.” ↩︎
- Seth Goldstein. (2023) “We Forecast Global Electric Vehicle Sales to Quadruple by 2030.” ↩︎
- EV Box. (2023) “Electric car battery weight explained.” ↩︎
- Amit Katwala. (2019) “The devastating environmental impact of technological progress.” ↩︎
- Ibid. ↩︎
- Malcolm Earnshaw-Osler. (2023) “The Social and Environmental Impacts of Lithium Mining.” ↩︎
- Gruppo d’Intervento Giuridico. (2022) “Non possono essere rilasciate quelle autorizzazioni per quella cava di marmo sul Monte Altissimo (Seravezza).” ↩︎
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